Friday, August 26, 2016

Macquarie says Sept rate hike depends on Trump polling numbers

Wizman adds that the speech implies a rate increase is still coming this year, and Dec. is the most likely timing of that. “There were some people in the market who expected that she would invoke Sept. and that was probably the wrong thing to expect"; Fed has moved away from calendar guidance.

Macquarie now sees a 60% chance of a rate hike in Dec., and Wizman expects two rate increases in 2017, as Yellen "seems to be downplaying risks of low growth."

He adds that the risks to a December rate hike including "more turbulence from Europe, as Italians hold referendum in Oct. and concerns over Brexit could percolate again; U.S. election and how it could inform decision making." .... http://www.zerohedge.com